From:           	Self <Jamie>
To:             	john coleman
Subject:        	save the freighter...
Date sent:      	Tue, 14 Apr 1998 18:01:53 -0500

ok.. i just kinda went through that scenario with the starfuries vs 
the Raiders..  did a thinking experiment.

I figured.. ok.  first turn when the Raiders get in close with the 
freighter.   Let's say they don't do any jinking, and the 'furies 
have complete advantage so they come in from behind, no combat pivots 
needed.   That gives them a to-hit of 9.  This is THE BEST to-hit the 
'furies will have!  Which means on the average 2.25 'furies will hit 
from each flight.   So between the three flights, they'll take down 7 
Raiders.  I figured they'd spread their shots out for 1 flight on 1 
flight.  So you lose 2, 2, and 3 fighters from some Raiders  flights. 
  That still leaves17 Raiders.  You'll average out to about 14 
hitting (figuring same hex as freighter, from side so 15 to-hit, +3 
offensive.. 18 to-hit).   So then I said.. well, assume each one does 
average damage - so 11 pts per Raider, but armor counts double 
towards that (2 guns). Roll locations 14 times (assuming side shots 
in front hemisphere - freighter is broken into front/back).   The 
frighter died.  1 turn.  It only took 12 hits.  But I rolled a lot of 
front structure (of which there's only 32 pts and 2 armor, so 7 gets 
through each hit).

So i sat down to figure how many hits it might take.. by rolling 
locations, figuring average damage.

It looks like the freighter is going to be scrap after the first 
turn, even if it isn't destroyed.   The front structure will VERY 
LIKELY be gone.  It's around 16 hits or so to destroy it.

If you figure in the suppression and the +2, you will kill three more 
Raiders, plus prevent several more from hitting.  So your # of 
expected hits on the freighter drops down to about 10.   But figure 
the Raiders will also be doing some jinking.  Say 2 points of 
jinking.   So now you're back to 7 kills, but the expected # of hits 
is still about 10-11.

And this is assuming the 'furies got initiative!!

And there appears to be an error in the hit locations - you've got 
side thrusters on the front structure, but nothing for them on the 
hit charts.